Sauter vs. younger Dillon for truck title?

Autoracing Betting Lines

02/22/2012 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Series: NASCAR Camping World Truck. Date: Friday, February 24. Race: NextEra Energy Resources 250. Site: Daytona International Speedway. Track: 2.5-mile tri-oval. Start time: 7:30 p.m. (et). Laps: 100. Miles: 250. 2010 winner: Michael Waltrip. Television: SPEED. Radio: Motor Racing Network (MRN)/SIRIUS NASCAR Satellite.

The 2012 Camping World Truck Series kicks off Friday night at Daytona International Speedway.

With 2011 truck champion Austin Dillon now a full-time competitor in the Nationwide Series, Johnny Sauter, who finished six points behind Dillon last year, is the preseason favorite to win the title.

Sauter concluded last season by winning the rain-shortened race at Homestead- Miami Speedway. During the offseason, Sauter's team, ThorSport Racing, switched from Chevrolet to Toyota.

"The biggest thing we can do is look back at last season and see where did we lose points and what could we have done to prevent that," he said. "I think coming out in 2012 with the Toyota support and changing manufacturers, new sponsors -- essentially my whole team is back and my crew chief (Joe Shear Jr.), I feel like we can pick up right where we left off and ultimately try to win races and a championship."

Rookie Ty Dillon is next in line as a title contender in the series this year. Dillon, the 2011 ARCA Racing Series champion, is replacing his elder brother, Austin, in Richard Childress Racing's No. 3 truck. Ty, who will turn 20 years old Monday, made three starts in trucks last season. His best finish of third came last November at Texas. He also placed sixth at Homestead.

"I think we can go out there and do our best to be competitive each week," Dillon said. "We went to a lot of tracks last year on the ARCA Racing Series schedule that we had never raced before and brought home some good finishes. I think with the help of my RCR teammates, we'll be able to put up more good finishes this season in the NASCAR Camping World Truck Series."

Ron Hornaday Jr., the four-time truck champion, makes his debut with Joe Denette Motorsports. Hornaday had driven for Kevin Harvick Inc. for the past seven years, but KHI shut down its Nationwide and truck operations at the end of last season.

"It was just three months ago that I didn't have a job," Hornaday said. "KHI was closing their doors, and I was at a crossroads. I was introduced to (team owner) Joe (Denette) through Hermie Sadler, and the rest is history. Joe is a true race fan, and all he wants to do is win. I believe he has put the right people in place and has given this team all the tools they need to get the job done."

Hornaday holds the series record with 51 race wins, but has to score a victory at Daytona. The series has been competing at this track each year since 2000.

Brad Keselowski is the only Sprint Cup regular competing in this race. Ward Burton, the 2002 Daytona 500, is making his first start in a NASCAR national touring series event since October 2007.

Forty-four teams are on the preliminary entry list for the NextEra Energy Resources 250.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.